Carney’s Liberals win tight Canada election

Canada’s Liberal Party won a fourth straight election, as voters chose former central banker Mark Carney to manage the country’s response to US President Donald Trump’s trade war.

The Liberals need to win 172 of the House of Commons’ 343 electoral districts, known as seats, for a majority that would allow them to govern without support from a smaller party.

The margin of victory was narrow. Liberal candidates were leading or elected in 168 seats, ahead of the Conservative Party’s 144 seats, as of 12:07 p.m. Ottawa time on Tuesday.

The Liberals earned more than 43% of the national vote but may fall short of the 172 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons, meaning Carney’s government would be forced to work with other parties to pass budgets and other legislation. The New Democratic Party, which helped support the minority government of Justin Trudeau, appears to be in a position to do so again, despite winning just seven seats.

“Who’s ready to stand up for Canada with me?” Carney told cheering supporters early Tuesday. He said that Trump’s repeated comments about making Canada the 51st U.S. state were “not idle threats.”

“President Trump is trying to break us, so that America can own us. That will never, that will never, ever happen,” he said.

Carney said it was important to recognize that “our world has fundamentally changed,” and that Canada’s old relationship with the United States, its longtime ally and trading partner, is “over.”

“We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons,” he said. “We have to look out for ourselves.”

Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the opposition Conservatives, conceded defeat earlier Tuesday and congratulated Carney, describing the Liberals’ projected victory as a “razor-thin minority government” and saying his party would hold them accountable.

Only a few months ago, Poilievre — who is in danger of losing his seat in Parliament as votes continue to be counted — seemed poised to be the next leader of Canada amid public frustration with soaring inflation, rising immigration and what was criticized as then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s overly conciliatory approach to Trump, then the president-elect.

Trudeau announced his resignation Jan. 6, two weeks before Trump was inaugurated, after polls showed him struggling with voters.

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to supporters at a victory party in Ottawa on Tuesday. Dave Chan / AFP - Getty Images

Since he returned to office, however, Trump has enraged Canadians with his behavior toward one of his country’s closest allies. His policies and rhetoric — including imposing steep tariffs on Canadian imports and the “51st state” comments — became the central issue in the Canadian election and helped the Liberals make a remarkable turnaround, closing an almost 20-point gap with the Conservatives in a matter of weeks. The Liberals were also boosted by a candidate, Carney, who may be uniquely positioned to respond to Trump and the global economic uncertainty his tariffs have created.

Like Trump, Carney had never held elected office before becoming his country’s leader and spent much of his life in the private sector. He became prime minister last month after he was elected leader of the Liberal Party, then quickly called a snap election in the hope of securing a full term.

Carney, 60, is also a former central banker used to dealing with economic crises, having run the Bank of Canada after the 2008 global financial crisis and the Bank of England during the Brexit process.

He touted that experience during the campaign, which lasted 37 days.

“Mark offers the proven leadership and real plan we need to deliver change for our party and our country, and to build the strongest economy in the G7,” his campaign said, referring to the Group of Seven industrialized nations.

Poilievre had been on a rising trajectory until earlier this year, with his “Trump light” style embraced by the populist wing of his party. As anger in Canada grew, however, his similarities with Trump began to work against him.

Poilievre ran on job opportunities and on promises that Gen Z voters would be able to afford housing, leveraging public fatigue with the Liberal government. At a rally Sunday, the CBC quoted him as calling the Trudeau government “the lost Liberal decade of rising crime, chaos, drugs and disorder.”

Trump continued goading Canada on Monday as voters went to the polls, saying again that it should become the “cherished” 51st U.S. state.

“ALL POSITIVES WITH NO NEGATIVES. IT WAS MEANT TO BE!” he said on his Truth Social platform. Both Carney and Poilievre rebuked Trump over such comments and others he has made about the Canadian election.

“They can become divided and weak,” Carney said in a video on social media Monday, speaking of the U.S. “But this is Canada. And we decide what happens here.”

Poilievre wrote Monday on X: “President Trump, stay out of our election.”

“The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box,” he wrote. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”

One voter said he voted Liberal because Poilievre “sounds like mini-Trump to me.” Reid Warren, of Toronto, told The Associated Press that tariffs were also a concern.

“Canadians coming together from, you know, all the shade being thrown from the States is great, but it’s definitely created some turmoil, that’s for sure,” Warren said.

Trump did not appear to have publicly commented on the election result as of late Monday, but his predecessor congratulated Carney and the Liberals.

“I’m confident Mark will be a strong leader for the fundamental values and interests Canadians and Americans share,” former President Joe Biden said in a post on X.